Dear AD, I am an amateur historian who enjoys writing about the rise and fall of African presidents. The case of Rwanda’s Paul Kagame is most fascinating right now.

I am intrigued by Kagame’s insistence that he will retire in 2017 when his second and last term ends – and his opponents’ conviction that he will cling on to power to the very end.

Guess what, Kagame’s retirement in 2017 is something of a statistical improbability. My crystal ball tells me he can’t retire because when he looks at a particular statistic, he realises he would be doomed if he did.

What is this particular statistic if you may ask?

Simple. No Rwandan head of state has ever retired PEACEFULLY and lived IN PEACE! Here is a brief look at a very gloomy history indeed:

Rwabugiri – unified Rwandan state, centralized military structure, died at the helm in 1885, leaving behind a co-ruler, his son Rutalindwa to lead.
Rutalindwa – assassinated in the Rucunshu coup d’État organized by Kanjogera (Kagame’s great aunt) in December 1896.
Musinga – installed by his mother Kanjogera and her brothers, deposed by Belgian colonial authorities in 1931.
Rudahigwa – installed by the colonials and possibly poisoned by them towards the end of colonial rule in 1959; reformist king in the 1950s.
Ndahindurwa – Overthrown in 1961, end of kingdom; Kigeri still lives in exile.
Mbonyumutwa – the first and (provisional) President of Rwanda, 28 January to 26 October 1961. Despised when alive and dead – he was slapped by a youth; his remains were dug out by Kagame regime to make room for a stadium in 2010.
Kayibanda – overthrown in 1973 by his defence minister Habyarimana in a military coup. Kayibanda and his wife were held in a secret location where they were starved to death.
Habyarimana – nicknamed “Kinani” or “invincible”, Habyarimana was killed when his airplane was downed in 1994 igniting genocide.
Sindikubwabo – a puppet of the group of military officers who held the real power during genocide, he fled to Zaire/Congo and died in the late 1990s of natural causes.
Bizimungu – forced out/resigned in 2000, placed under house arrest in 2002 and charged with endangering the state, sentenced to 15 years in prison, and pardoned in 2007.
AD, with such a history, Kagame’s peaceful retirement is a statistical improbability. There is the other small matter – his controversial record while in office, especially mass murder in Rwanda and Congo.

How and why would such a man retire? What is his incentive to do so – to face the hangman’s rope?
Source A.D
Jean-Marie KABUTO, Montreal, Canada.