• In Summary: The 19 countries were identified after an in-depth examination of past Ebola outbreaks, distribution of species suspected to be carriers of the virus and the land surface temperatures in different parts of the continent.
  • If only environmental suitability is considered as the dominant factor for transmission, then the three countries have the highest chance of experiencing an Ebola outbreak in future compared with their other neighbours.
  • Ebola can be easily spread by cross-border movement of infected travellers be it by air, road or sea, meaning other EAC member states are also not safe.
 

Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi have the highest number of people at risk of zoonotic transmission of the Ebola virus disease in the East African Community.

The three countries have been identified as having strong environmental suitability for the four African species of Ebola virus along with 16 other countries.

A study conducted by scientists from top research institutions in Europe puts Uganda as the country with the biggest population at risk followed by Tanzania and Burundi.

The 19 countries were identified after an in-depth examination of past Ebola outbreaks, distribution of species suspected to be carriers of the virus and the land surface temperatures in different parts of the continent.

“The relationship between the Ebola virus Disease niche and the environmental covariates, underscore that there are clear environmental limits to transmission of the virus from animals to humans, and that ecoregions dominated by rainforest are the primary home of such zoonotic cycles,” the scientists said in their study entitled “Mapping the Zoonotic Niche of Ebola Virus Disease in Africa.”

This means if only environmental suitability is considered as the dominant factor for transmission, then the three countries have the highest chance of experiencing an Ebola outbreak in future compared with their other neighbours.

However, Ebola can be easily spread by cross-border movement of infected travellers be it by air, road or sea, meaning other EAC member states are also not safe.

This mode of transmission (human-to-human) is the main cause of the high rate of spread in West Africa after the first case was reported in a remote village in Guinea.

In all countries at risk, since the discovery of the disease in 1976, the scientists said, urban and rural populations have increased and become more interconnected both within and across national borders.

The scientists identified the 19 countries using the latest niche modelling techniques to predict geographical distribution of potential zoonotic transmission of the disease.

Using the results, the researchers then estimated the number of people at risk from Ebola both in countries where cases have been reported and those with strong environmental suitability for outbreaks.

The world is currently experiencing the worst Ebola outbreak in the disease’s history, which has so far killed almost 5,000 people.

The US-based Centres for Disease Control and Prevention projects up to 1.4 million people could be infected by January next year, if the cases continue to increase exponentially.

The World Bank predicts the epidemic could inflict a devastating blow, amounting to $359 million, to the fragile economies of the worst affected countries in West Africa this year. However, the financial institution adds, in the worst-case scenario, the losses could rise to $809 million by the end of 2015.

The study published in the scientific journal eLife, estimates the total number of people at risk of zoonotic transmission of the virus in Uganda at 980,000, Tanzania 130,000 and Burundi 30,000. In Ethiopia and South Sudan, 80,000 and 30,000 people respectively, are at risk.

Globally, the Democratic Republic of Congo has the highest number (11.7 million), followed by Nigeria (2 million), Cameroon (1.9 million), Guinea (1.4 million), Central African Republic(900,000), Cote d’Ivoire (460,000), Liberia (440,000), Sierra Leone (430,000), Gabon (310,000) and Republic of Congo (290,000). In total, 22 million people are predicted to live in areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of Ebola