“If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.” — Sun Tzu, “The Art of War” (circa 500 BC)

It is time for the international community and regional leaders to know the kind of the Rwandan ruler President Paul Kagame. Indeed, the whole world must develop serious strategies for dealing with a ruthless man who has no respect for human life or fundamental human rights that most democracies enjoy in the world.

 

Kagame has been in charge of Rwanda since 1994 as de facto ruler until 2000 when he replaced his handpicked president Pasteur Bizimungu who was just there in the office to sign what Kagame orders him to do. He is arguably the last dictator in the world today.

The symbolic, soft, tactical approach which is the hallmark of the regional and of course the international community foreign policy is dangerous, delusional and utterly incapable of understanding or coping with a ruthless killer and dictator like Kagame. Indeed, there is a growing danger that the diplomatic approach and weak actions will lead Kagame to believe that he can continue to incrementally invade other countries, kill his political opponents, suffocate the free media or violate human rights unabated.

 

Symbolic diplomacy has its own logic and lives in its own fantasy land. It loves good language with soft approach to a man who has his own mission of disrespect to not only rule of law but fundamentally arrogant for  delusional supremacy .

 

The recent concluded summit for the Heads of State in the Angolan Capital Luanda (Luanda Declaration) on DR Congo Peace was attended by the President Kabila and Kagame as partners of peace in the mineral rich Eastern part of DR Congo. There are, however, three things that make this summit in the DR Congo conflict a very dangerous and probably unprofitable game.

First, Rwanda is a small country with no resources. Kagame will never rest as long as his country needs some of these mineral resources in the Eastern Part of DR Congo. If the regional leaders aren’t careful, Kagame will be playing diplomacy to calm the sea waves and will resume the hostilities directly in the pretext of fighting the FDLR or through his proxies as has been the case.

Second, there are a lot of countries that care more about either working with Rwanda or undermining the peace talks than they do about rhetoric meetings of heads of state whose human rights record is also under scrutiny.

As the international community keeps talking without concrete actions against the Rwandan dictator, other nations with similar human rights record are studying Kagame’s maneuvers in Congo as a useful precedent for retaking the same steps to consolidate power and tyranny on their own people.

Third, there are a lot of ways the Kagame regime can make life more difficult for the  Peace Intervention Force in Congo and Congo in general .Kagame has already indicated he will  hit the Tanzanian Head of State at a right time and place, for those who understand Kagame very well there is little room to doubt his words.

In fact he has said publicly that he will even use a hammer to kill a fly, a metaphor for his opponents and he has done it on the Rwandan Soil and abroad. He signed the Arusha Peace Accord with the late Habyarimana and later plotted his assassination in which another Head of State of a neighboring country Burundi died.

Interestingly despite all these ugly human rights records the European Capitals have kept laying red carpets for this man whose killings have already surpassed those of the known African dictators combined. It is a suggestion that we take a deep breath and understand that we are on the edge of a much bigger problem than symbolic rhetoric and public tantrums can solve.

The international community working closely with the regional blocks like SADAC in which South Africa and Tanzania have a home  should stop posturing from press conference to press conference and from one expedient to the next expedient as this  is not only  extraordinarily dangerous on security issues but a bad precedent for other leaders with the likes of Kagame.

The international community needs strategic thinking, strategic planning and a set of strategic goals and patterns to achieve them. None of that exists in the current approach of the regional summits.  Indeed, the first step in strategic planning is to know your opponent, as Sun Tzu said more than 2,500 years ago. Kagame does not have friends, comrades, mutual respect for his counterparts, therefore those dealing with him should understand him or he will cross their borders and kill them at a time of his choosing.

A speech worth studying

 

Fortunately for us, Kagame gave a major speech on the thanks giving in front of clergy and other Christians where he said that he will kill all his political opponents, in fact anyone thinking about strategy for dealing with Kagame should study that speech carefully.

That speech makes clear that Kagame is a very dangerous man who has put a lot of thought into what he believes and what he is doing. It is a speech filled with historic references both to the Rwandans past and to the recent activities of the Kagame regime on the African continent and beyond.

 

Therefore, it is time to drop the symbolic fantasies and the tactics driven by press conferences, summits  and to put pressure on Kagame to have national dialogue  not only on domestic discontent issues  but also  about the new regional security situation we find ourselves in.

Jacqueline Umurungi

Brussels.