Museveni-Mbabazi fallout: What next?
President Museveni shares a word with out-going Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi at the NRM Kyankwanzi retreat early this year. PHOTO BY GEOFFREY SSERUYANGE.
IN SUMMARY
Mr Mbabazi was dropped as prime minister but has remained in charge of the NRM party’s most influential position. While Mr Museveni remains in charge of the government, Mbabazi is in control of the party organs.
If the dropping of Mr Amama Mbabazi from the Prime Minister position results into a bare-knuckle political fight pitying the ruling party’s secretary general against party chairman President Museveni, the implications for the NRM could be dire.
Since the disagreements between the duo became public knowledge about a year ago, President Museveni was seen, or perceived, to avoid contact with Mr Mbabazi. On occasions when their paths met, like at the recent fundraising for the Catholic Church to rebuild the Namugongo Martyrs shrine at Serena Hotel, Mr Museveni seemed to avoid eye contact with his Prime Minister and the handshake was clearly lukewarm.
Sacking Mr Mbabazi, which to many was long in coming given the length of time the futile machinations to get him to denounce his perceived presidential ambitions have taken, should therefore spare Mr Museveni the inconvenience of having to encounter him during Cabinet meetings and other government functions. But this will not spare the President coming face to face with Mr Mbabazi during the key party activities that will dot the coming year as they prepare for the 2016 elections.
By virtue of being NRM secretary general, Mr Mbabazi is secretary to the party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC), which the President chairs.
Mr Mbabazi also plays a central role in the convening of the National Conference, the party’s top-most organ which, among other things, has powers to amend the NRM constitution and choose candidates to represent the party in national elections.
Mr Mbabazi’s wife, Ms Jacqueline Mbabazi, being the chairperson of the party’s women’s league, despite recent attempts to drop her from the position, is also a member of CEC.
The CEC comprises the chairman, Mr Museveni, the vice chairman, Hajj Moses Kigongo and the secretary general, Mr Mbabazi. The other members are the first vice chairperson, the second vice chairman, the four regional vice chairpersons, national treasurer, deputy secretary general, deputy national treasurer, chairperson of the parliamentary caucus, chairpersons of the national special leagues committees and chairpersons of commissions.
This organ has in the past scuttled attempts by three party members, including Dokolo MP Felix Okot Ogong and Capt Ruhinda Maguru, to contest against President Museveni for the party’s ticket in the national presidential elections.
Also, any proposed amendments to the NRM constitution are channelled through the secretary general, who is also the secretary of the disciplinary committee. As head of the party’s secretariat, Mr Mbabazi was in charge of registering the party’s members, in the “Yellow Book” project. The project was aimed at “ascertaining the party’s actual support” around the country in preparation for the elections.
What is Museveni’s game plan?
It would appear, therefore, that Mr Museveni still has to uproot Mr Mbabazi from the party’s body politic.
Hajj Abdul Nadduli, the NRM vice chairperson for Buganda, says we may be reading too much into the whole thing. He says many party members, including himself, have been “concerned” that the party was being neglected as responsibilities of the Prime Minister consumed most of Mr Mbabazi’s time.
In 2010, Mr Mbabazi rejected calls to step down as secretary general; arguing that by virtue of the NRM constitution, the secretary general post is not a bureaucratic one, meaning it is not a full time job, like is the case with parties of Chama Cha Mapinduzi of Tanzania and the Africa National Congress of South Africa. The solution, Mr Mbabazi said, would be to amend the NRM constitution and provide for a bureaucratic secretary general.
He insisted he was elected by the National Conference, the party’s topmost organ, and that it was the only one with powers to drop him. He argued further that he was not the only top figure in the government who held more than one position, citing Mr Museveni who, on top of being president, is also the party chairman and commander in chief of the armed forces.
“Now he (Mr Mbabazi) will have enough time to organise our party; one office had swallowed up the other and the party was suffering,” Hajj Nadduli said. This is the same reasoning reiterated by Mr Ofwono Opondo, the head of the government media centre, to explain Mr Mbabazi’s sacking.
However, by so saying, the duo suggests that all Mr Museveni had in mind was to release Mr Mbabazi so he could execute the party functions more effectively.
The circumstances of Mr Mbabazi’s sacking though do not seem to corroborate this version. In Museveni’s communication to Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga On Thursday that Mr Mbabazi had been replaced with Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, for instance, the President said the changes would take “immediate effect.” So why the hurry?
Mean-looking, armed policemen lay in single files along Kampala streets and the offices of the Prime Minister were sealed off. Normal Cabinet changes do not usually happen this way.
The politics
It is even more curious that the reshuffle only affected Mr Mbabazi’s position. Cabinet reshuffles ordinarily involve a number of sackings, transfers, reorganisations and new arrivals.
Former Information and Communication Technology minister Aggrey Awori, however, said a full Cabinet reshuffle should be on the way in “a matter of weeks”. He said the President “must have decided to wait for Parliament to first pass the Budget” because respective ministers have to defend their ministries’ budgets before the House.
Mr Awori said that could be the reason why even new Prime Minister Rugunda remained in charge of the docket of Minister of Health.
If this explanation is correct, however, it raises more questions than it answers. Why, in the first place, did Mr Mbabazi have to be fired “with immediate effect” just weeks before a full reshuffle? Did the President receive any information that necessitated Mr Mbabazi’s immediate sacking? Does this explain the police deployment in Kampala on that day?
Mr Awori speculated further that Mr Mbabazi would likely have criminal cases opened against him, possibly by reopening inquests into what came to be known as the Temangalo scandal, in which he was accused of influence peddling in selling his land in Temangalo to the National Social Security Fund at an inflated price.
Asked whether bringing charges against Mr Mbabazi would not just radicalise him as a challenger of Mr Museveni as was the case with Dr Kizza Besigye in 2001, Mr Awori said: “The two (Mr Mbabazi and Dr Besigye) are not made of the same particles.”
He says now that Mr Mbabazi is no longer Prime Minister, “the capacity to mobilise will not be there anymore”.
Mobilisation is what Mr Mbabazi seems to have done in heavy doses recently. Many of his posts on Facebook are about his attendance of introduction and wedding functions and many times when he has moved out to visit different communities recently, he has received a spear and shield as a gift.
A spear and shield are symbols of power in many African societies. When he received one during a meeting of the Banyakigezi community a few months ago, controversy ensued as to whether they had anointed him as their presidential candidate.
President Museveni shortly afterwards visited Kanungu, Mr Mbabazi’s home district, and received a yellow present shaped as the map of Uganda with the words “NRM sole candidate” inscribed on it. It was later alleged that the person who gave him the present was attacked and his house torched. Not much has been heard about the case since.
Mr Awori reckons that the deal breaker for Mr Mbabazi’s holding of the Prime Minister position was his “inciting of the youth”.
Mr Awori says: “He has been telling the youth their time has come in a way to imply that they need to stick with him so he can deliver them to where they want to go.”
In all this, Mr Mbabazi gives very little away. Whenever he has been asked to own up or denounce the groups that purport to campaign for him or state whether he will run for president, Mbabazi has always said his party’s constitution does not allow open campaigning before campaigns are declared officially.
Only time will tell how intense the fight for the soul of NRM will go and how it will end. Whatever happens, however, Mr Awori is adamant that Mr Museveni will prevail. By the time the duo jostling for supremacy settles down, a new-look, and probably weaker NRM, could have emerged.
Reactions
Norbert Mao, DP president: “The chickens have come home to roost. Museveni and Mbabazi have been aiming at each other for a long time and it was a question of who would shoot first and Museveni has shot first. He [Museveni ] wants to demonstrate that he can make you and break you and that is what he is trying to demonstrate to anyone who is thinking of running against him in the NRM.”
Mohammed Kulumba, political analyst: “A lot that has been said about the former premier contesting has been speculative, but if he actualises and declares his intentions of contesting, it will bring back competitiveness in the democratic processes which had gone to the periphery and that is why there has been a lot of apathy from the voters.”
Joseph Bbosa, UPC vice president: “It is too early to predict how it [the dropping of Mbabazi] will affect the landscape. This is a matter of the NRM and it will not affect the country. If he decides to contest, we will meet him at the ballot,”
emukiibi@ug.nationmedia.com
