In Summary: Kagame is isolated as the regional leaders disagree on the FDLR Strategy

Kagame bought TL-50 air defense missiles from China which prompts him to threaten the region, but have never been tested

Inyenyeri news has obtained reliable information that President Kagame‘s impatience on what Kigali calls flushing out FDLR is growing thinner and thinner.  His Foreign Affairs microphone Louise Mushikawabo briefed the international media that Kigali will not hesitate to take unilateral decision against the FDLR which Kigali sees as a threat to its national security.

Kagame Mushikiwabo making noise 

Inyenyeri news had earlier learnt that President Kagame sold his unilateral plan to President Museveni of Uganda who categorically in Private warned Kagame that unilateral attack to a sovereign country in the pretext of flushing out FDLR will be disastrous for Rwanda and might set fire on the whole region.

This disagreement on how to deal with the FDLR prompted the South African President Jacob Zuma to fly to Uganda on 21 Dec. to talk to his Ugandan counterpart to defuse the rising tensions in the region and around the Kigali unilateral deployment of its troops in the neighbouring Congo.

Jacob Zuma

We have also reliable information that the idea of using the East African Regional Standby Force which Kigali thought to rely on to disarm FDLR rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, was not supported by all the members of the East African Community.

EA Standby force

The United Republic of Tanzania being the biggest donor of the Intervention Brigade that flushed out the M23 a rebel proxy force of Kigali regime is threatening retaliatory consequences if Kigali unilaterally attacks its vast neighbor.

Kigali regime suffered another setback when recently the Belgium government froze Euros 50 M as a supplementary budget for its poor democratic performance. Kagame has been heard on many occasions denouncing aid with strings attached, with this blow to his budget by Rwanda traditional donor might prompt other donor countries to follow suit.

Inyenyeri has learnt that the major reason for South African President Jacob Zuma’s surprise visit to Dares Salaam and Kampala earlier this week, was the rising tension between Kigali and Congo on how to deal with FDLR.

Congo is the home of different armed groups that threaten the security of its neighbours , however, Rwanda has been all the time opportunistically exploited this situation to deploy its proxy armed groups which have not only looted Congo minerals , but has also caused the most horrific atrocities on the Congolese people.

The United Nations  Mapping report estimates the number of people killed by Kigali forces and its proxy armed forces to six million(6), without counting the cost of internally displaced and those who have fled to the neighboring countries. The intervention brigaded force that flushed out M23 is composed of Malawian and South African forces, this force was very instrumental in the short and precise defeat of the M23 the Kagame notorious armed group that has raped women and killed Congolese innocent children for almost Two decades.

Although  the Security Council on which Rwanda is one of the non-permanent member gave Jan.21,2015 the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR),the deadline to surrender, demobilise and renounce  what Kigali calls its genocide ideology or an international force would be brought in, has been very reluctant to support Kigali’s unilateral decision to re invade its vast neighbour.

Kagame and his senior officials have been issuing contradictory information were they say FDLR is weak and is not security threatening, on another occasion they say its security threat to its national security, this would be one of the reasons why  the region and international community don’t support the Kigali argument because it has always used this ticket to buy the international community sympathy on all the occasions that Kagame has either invaded Congo or used proxy forces to destabilise Congo.

The other armed group is Ugandan rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) which Kampala accuses of waging an armed rebellion against the government of President Museveni. Paradoxically the Uganda government has not on any single day attacked its neighbour without diplomatic agreement. It’s for this reason, that President Museveni who is now a close ally to President Kagame does not like to look in public as opposed to the Kagame idea of invading Congo again, but many believe that in private he has warned his former student (Kagame) that attacking Congo alone might be the beginning of  the end his political career.

President Museveni being a good student of history knows very well the demise of president Id Amin who in 1978 made a big mistake by attacking the United Republic of Tanzania, President Museveni is worried that history might repeat itself given that Tanzania is a member of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), with close ties to South Africa. Indeed, the bad blood between President Jakaya Kikwete and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, might be a precursor to an all-out war in the region.

Political analysts say Zuma’s mission to Kampala was to persuade his Ugandan counterpart to use his influence in the region to warn Kagame that the road his taking might be bumpy and dusty. Indeed, the misuse of the East African combat units under the East African Standby Forces (EASF) would be against the spirit and the intention of keeping peace in the region.

It is said EASF, mandated by the African Union’s Peace and Security Council, is itching to attack the negative forces in eastern DRC, particularly the FDLR, following the UNSC’s verdict that the group will not meet the deadline to fully demobilise.

“Since July 2, no further voluntary surrenders of the members of the FDLR have happened and the FDLR have failed to deliver on their public promise to voluntarily demobilise. Only substantial progress towards the full demobilisation called for by the region and committed to by the FDLR could justify further reprieve from military action against the FDLR,” the UNSC said

Despite the African Union Peace and Security warning on the failure of FDLR demobilisation, has also warned that Kigali’s unilateral invasion is not only catastrophic but also harbours other ultra-motives which the African body is shared by the United Nations Security Council and by even the Kigali traditional allies like US A and  UK.

The Inyenyeri news has further learnt that in the meeting between Presidents Zuma and Museveni, it was agreed that a quick mini-summit be held to “first consult Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos on his position for this deployment.”

Museveni would then carry the position of the ICGLR chairman to his counterparts Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta and Rwanda’s Kagame, on whether to proceed with or suspend the onslaught on the FDLR. However, the Rwandan President has been crisscrossing the Angolan Capital with intention of bringing the Angolan president on board.   The Angolan Head of State is the chairman of the 12-member state regional peace and security pact, the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) comprising Angola, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania. The other members are Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Congo Brazzaville, the Central African Republic and Zambia. Political analysts have argued that Angola has more political and economic interests in Congo than in Rwanda.

It would therefore be very difficult for Kagame to pull Dos Santos to his side and those who know very well President, he couldn’t be a reliable partner of Kagame, and this would put Kagame in more to isolation.

 

Joseph Ruhumuriza.