In summary: Armed groups continued existence in the region after the defeat of M23, at the same time FDLR has attacked Lubelo. In Uganda the army spokesman reports M23 Escape

In DRC serious offenders absconded following Prison fire, In Rwanda reports indicate on-going trainings of Burundi rebels, the big brother of Burundi Tanzania Opposed AU forces intervention, Kagame pleaded for military intervention in Burundi but with no Rwanda’s role. Pres Nkurunziza of Burundi against AU force intervention blames Rwanda for instability

The Great lakes regional conflict on again

Despite greatly improved security after the surrender of “M23”, the protracted conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo persisted with other armed groups in the country’s east failed to lay down their weapons.

Some time back the UN official warned “We are not at the end game,” Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), said as he briefed the 15-nation body on recent developments in the strife-torn central African nation.

He stated that, Since 2002, more than 11,000 combatants of the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) — an armed group formed by leaders of the genocide in neighbouring Rwanda — had been disarmed, demobilized and reintegrated into Rwandan society, he said.  However, an estimated 1,500 combatants of that group were still active and their leaders were stalling implementation of the Congolese Government’s six-month voluntary disarmament plan.

Kobler stressed that, “This was a serious signal of non-cooperation.  Standing still means we are moving backwards,” Mr. Kobler said, stressing that the FDLR’s dissolution would be a turning point that would fundamentally alter and improve security in the entire region.  He backed the consensus among the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region to use the “military option” against factions unwilling to disarm.

 

Echoing that concern, Mary Robinson, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes Region of Africa, said the FDLR’s process had yet to gain sufficient traction to show true credibility, creating a “worrying dynamic” in the region.  She underscored the need to preserve the earlier consensus built on armed groups, to remain focused on Security Council resolutions on neutralizing the FDLR and to fully implement the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Region.

Meanwhile: On the 7/01/2016 fourteen people were killed in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo Thursday morning, the army said in a sign of the ethnic tensions that persist in the conflict-torn region.

Nine other people were being treated in hospital for injuries.

The killings took place in Miriki, around 110km north of Goma, capital of North Kivu province.

According to local authorities and the military, the attack was planned by rebels from neighbouring Rwanda.

Bokele Joy, administrator of the Lubero area under which Miriki falls blamed the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda).

A local human rights defender, Souleymane Mokili, supported the army saying he had seen the bodies of the victims, which bore “machete and bullet” wounds.

The FDLR rebels have been regularly accused of heinous crimes against civilians in the area.

The rebel group was founded by some of the perpetrators of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide who fled into neighbouring Congo and is estimated by analysts to have more than 1,000 members.

The militia’s spokesman could not be immediately reached for comments.

At the same time it’s reported that, About 1,000 former fighters the M23 which MONUSCO believed had been wiped out, from a Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) rebel group broke out Tuesday from a camp in Uganda where they were being held as soldiers were trying to repatriate them, the Ugandan army said.

“A thousand rebels from the M23 (group) have escaped” from the camp in Bihanga, about 300 kilometres southwest of the Ugandan capital Kampala, a spokesman for the Ugandan army said on the official Twitter account.

“They said they were worried about their safety if they were sent back to the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Several of the ex-rebels were wounded by gunshots after those in the camp refused to board army trucks sent in before dawn to take them to the airport, according to M23 chief Bertrand Bisimwa.

A Ugandan officer speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity admitted the operation had encountered “resistance” and confirmed that several in the camp were wounded by bullets.

The Ugandan army said the camp had been holding 1,373 former M23 fighters. An AFP reporter at Entebbe airport saw 120 of them board a plane bound for the DRC.

The Ugandan army spokesman, Lieutenant-Colonel Paddy Ankunda, said via Twitter that troops were now searching for the 1,000 “who escaped the repatriation”. He insisted that “no member of M23 was forced to be repatriated towards the DRC.”

But in Kampala, where he lives, Bisimwa disputed that. He said the attempt to return the M23 former fighters to the DRC was “a violation of international law” and of a peace deal reached a year ago between the DRC and the group.

The rebels’ 18-month war, during which they briefly seized the key DRC town of Goma, capital of mineral-rich North Kivu province, was brought to an end in 2013 by government troops and UN peacekeepers. The fighters fled into neighbouring Uganda and Rwanda.

They signed papers in May vowing not to fight again in return for a possible amnesty.

M23 leaders last month warned they would fight again should agreements fail. The defeated rebels told AFP of mounting frustrations among the group’s confined-to-camp fighters.

While the M23 was defeated, multiple armed groups still operate in a region that has been in conflict for the best part of two decades.

Much of the rebel activity consists of abuses against civilians and illegal exploitation of natural resources such as metals, ivory or timber.

At the same time it’s reported that in BUKAVU: Fifty prisoners including convicted murderers and rapists have escaped from a prison in the east of Democratic Republic of Congo after a fire, a local administrator said on Friday.

Fifty prisoners including convicted murderers and rapists have escaped from a prison in the east of Democratic Republic of Congo after a fire,
The inmates broke out of jail at Kamituga, 170km southwest of Bukavu, the capital of the strife-prone South Kivu province, “taking advantage of a fire,” Desire Kubuya Masumbuko said.

Kamituga is the gold-rich economic capital of the Mwenga territory overseen by Kubuya, where security forces have trouble dealing with several armed groups.

Just one prisoner remained in the jail after the others took to their heels late on Wednesday and by Friday morning, none of them had been recaptured, Kubuya said.

Those on the run include “20 convicted men, two for murder and 18 for rape,” Kubuya added, expressing fears that the jailbreak would lead to “a settling of scores.”

Rape and killings are endemic to the eastern Kivu provinces of the DRC, which have been wracked by warfare, ethnic strife, and armed conflicts over land and control of mineral resources for more than 20 years.

Congolese authorities say that North and South Kivu are the two provinces in the vast central African nation most seriously affected by “sexual violence related to conflict.”

Mass jailbreaks occur frequently in the DRC for lack of sufficient funds for the penal administration and the dilapidated state of old prisons in the former Belgian colony.

National and global human rights organisations regularly criticise detention conditions in these institutions.

BUKAVU: Fifty prisoners including convicted murderers and rapists have escaped from a prison in the east of Democratic Republic of Congo after a fire, a local administrator said on Friday.

On the other side, Burundian refugees in Rwanda are being recruited into rebel groups, a charity said in a report.

US-based advocacy group Refugees International said that men and boys in Rwanda’s Mahama camp, run by the United Nations and Rwandan authorities, were being recruited into “non-state armed groups” and faced threats if they refused.

The charity added that the Burundian recruits are trained in Rwanda and efforts are made to send them back to Burundi via neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

“The arming of Burundian refugees in Rwanda would not only represent a grave violation of international law, but also a serious threat to peace in Burundi and the entire region,” said Michael Boyce of Refugees International.

“In that context, refugees’ claims that some Rwandan officials turn a blind eye to recruitment, and possibly even facilitate it, are deeply disturbing,” he said.

The report found at least 80 cases of alleged recruitment, with some refugees saying they were, “trained inside Rwanda, transported in Rwandan military vehicles, and trained by Kinyarwanda-speaking individuals wearing military uniforms.”

Refugees gave conflicting accounts of which groups they were being recruited into, including long-standing National Forces of Liberation (FNL) rebels and a new group named ‘Imbogoraburundi’, meaning “Those Who Will Bring Burundi Back”.

The Rwandan government has in the past denied allegations of involvement in recruiting rebels.

Refugees International said “the civilian and humanitarian character of asylum has been and continues to be undermined in Rwanda, in violation of international law,” and called for recruitment to stop and for those responsible to be punished.

Burundi’s crisis began in April when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his intention to run for a controversial third term, which he went on to win in July.

More than 200,000 people have fled the country in the last eight months, according to the UN.

Burundi has repeatedly accused Rwanda of backing rebel’s intent on overthrowing the government in Bujumbura, allegations Rwanda had denied.

Surprisingly when the African Union suggested to send AU troops in Burundi was against the idea. TANZANIA opposed an African Union plan to deploy as many as 5,000 peacekeepers to stem violence in neighbouring Burundi and backed a political solution to the East African nation’s eight-month crisis.

Tanzania’s Foreign Affairs Minister Augustine Mahiga stated that was going to try and convince the AU to reconsider its proposal and give a chance the regionally backed negotiations, which restart in Uganda on Dec. 28. 2015 but with no clear direction.

The African Union on Dec. 18th 2015 went on and approved troops for Burundi, where violence spurred by Nkurunziza’s bid for a third presidential term. The AU also suggested it would send in a force even if the Burundi government is opposed it, saying another genocide would not happen on its watch.

Burundian officials, given four days to agree, have rejected the plan, saying it would violate the country’s sovereignty.

The Rwandan Government advised military intervention before any other nation, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame said the eight-month crisis in Burundi may need armed intervention to quell the violence, while ruling out sending Rwandan troops. At the same time President Nkurunziza of Burundi accused Rwanda of desterilising his nation, even went on to say that the AU forces should be sent to Rwanda because it’s the source of his country’s instability.

Rwandan Kagame said that, “The crisis in Burundi is political, not military, but it may require some level of military to quiet down the guns,” Kagame said. “We are appealing to Burundians to sort out their problems.”

However, Kagame said Rwanda would not be directly in any such effort.

Tanzania has historically played big brother to Burundi, and expects its view of events on Burundi to be taken seriously. It also tries as much as it can not to be at odds with Bujumbura.

It is currently hosting more than 120,000 refugees from Burundi, according to Mahiga.

On a personal note, Mahiga must be approaching the Burundi crisis with a mild sense of de javu.

Previously, he was the United Nations Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Political Office for Somalia, and part of the effort to stitch back the broken Horn of Africa nation.

Burundian officials, were given four days to agree, AU forces intervention but have rejected the plan, saying it would be a violation of the East African nation’s sovereignty. Nkurunziza’s opponents say he violated a two-term limit set out in accords that ended a civil war in 2005.

Kagame rejected the “childish allegation” that Rwanda had stoked instability in Burundi and said his country’s troops would play no part in any intervention.

Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza says he will consider any deployment of African Union peacekeepers in his troubled nation and attack against which he will retaliate militarily.

“Everyone has to respect Burundi’s borders. In case they violate those principles, they will have attacked the country and every Burundian will stand up and fight against them,” Nkurunziza announced in a national address on Wednesday that sent shockwaves through the international community and left many wondering how the continental union of nations will respond.

“The country will have been attacked and it will respond,” he said.

Nkurunziza faces increasing opposition from the AU and the international community over his unpopular quest to extend his tenure as president of the tiny central African nation. He weathered a May coup attempt and won a disputed election in July, though violence has continued.

According to South Africa-based security analyst Stephanie Wolters, Nkurunziza’s brio comes as no surprise, as Burundi’s top elected official has been building up to the statement with increasingly strong rhetoric since first proposing constitutional changes allowing him to seek a third presidential term.

Wolters, who heads the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis program at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, says Nkurunziza’s direct challenge to the AU, which only recently began flexing its muscles in terms of continental peace and security issues, bodes poorly for continuing peace talks in Uganda.

“I think the fact that Nkurunziza has said he will attack African Union troops, it’s not a blow to the AU,” she told VOA. “It makes his government look entirely irresponsible; it makes the government look like a government that doesn’t want to resolve a crisis. The African Union now, of course, is going to have to figure out how tough it wants to be in response to that.”

While the AU has legal backing to send in troops anyway, that move might only escalate the conflict, thereby defeating the primary purpose of a peacekeeping force. Rather than overruling the president, Wolters suggests AU officials should instead put peacekeeping plans on pause and strike a deal to round out its complement of neutral military and civilian observers in Burundi.

She also says Nkurunziza’s threat could backfire: In recent years, Burundi has been an active contributor to AU peacekeeping missions, which means Burundian soldiers may find themselves face to face with their former battle buddies.

“Nkurunziza may well say, ‘we’re going to combat AU forces,’ but there’s really no guarantee that the army is going to do that,” she said. “In fact, this is a key point here. The army has been less than willing to participate in Nkurunziza’s crackdowns on civilians, and so his threat may very well be very hollow. This may very well be the point at which the army says, ‘that’s it, we’ve had enough of this guy, we’re not going to go combating African Union troops, who, sometimes, we fight alongside.’”

Nkurunziza’s comments were issued as the specter of regional conflict, messy regional politics and ethnic violence loom: Burundi and neighboring Rwanda have long been politically at odds, with Burundi frequently accusing Rwanda of meddling in its affairs. Most recently, Bujumbura alleged that Kigali recruited Burundian refugees to overthrow Nkurunziza’s government.

Complicating things further, the presidents of the two nations are from the two rival ethnic groups that clashed in Rwanda’s 1994 genocide. Both tiny nations are dwarfed by the giant, messy Democratic Republic of Congo, who’s social and political troubles often spill over borders, wreaking havoc throughout the region.

Edited:  Noble  Marara