Increasingly beaten at home inside Somalia, Al Shabaab branches out into region to catch benefactors’ eye. TEA GRAPHIC | NATION MEDIA GROUP

Increasingly beaten at home inside Somalia, Al Shabaab branches out into region to catch benefactors eye

IN SUMMARY

  • The more their leaders are killed by a combination of Amisom, the Somali National Army (SNA) and US drone attacks, the more lethal they become in their revenge attacks.
  • Amisom says as the presence of Al Shabaab continues shrinking in Somalia, the group’s numbers are rising in the neighbouring countries such as Kenya, where they have fled to in good numbers, lying in wait to attack.
  • Meanwhile, the fall of the Yemeni regime is now posing a security headache for East African governments as Somali refugees trickle back home.

East African countries are under great threats from Somalia-based militants Al Shabaab, who are spilling into the region and forming sleeper cells after being ejected from their stronghold.

Security reports indicate that the militants have divided themselves into three groups to carry out attacks in Mogadishu and other regions in Somalia, as well as the East African region. A few of the militants are seeking to join in the national dialogue in the Horn of Africa nation.

The attack on Thursday at the Moi University-affiliated college in Kenya’s Garissa County — in which at least 147 people were killed and 79 others injured — could indicate that  the group tasked with attacking countries in the region is now active.

According to Abdirahman Omar Osman Yarisow, a politician and former senior strategic communications advisor to the federal government of Somalia, the more Al Shabaab loses territory the more the insurgents pull off high-profile attacks on civilians. This is aimed at showing their global backers Al Qaeda that they are still active.

Another reason for their attacks is the presence of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) in the country. The more their leaders are killed by a combination of Amisom, the Somali National Army (SNA) and US drone attacks, the more lethal they become in their revenge attacks.

Amisom’s recent capture of Kudha Island, a  key Al Shabaab logistical and operational base situated in Lower Juba region and around 70km southwest of the port city of Kismayu, dealt a major blow to the militants and has strengthened their resolve to look beyond Somalia for revenge.

These developments saw Britain issue fresh travel advisories against Kenya while the United States had warned of an imminent attack in Kampala, forcing the government to put the military on high alert.

Eloi Yao, the Amisom senior public information officer and spokesperson, told The EastAfrican that, as the presence of Al Shabaab continues shrinking in Somalia, the group’s numbers are rising in the neighbouring countries such as Kenya, where they have fled to in good numbers, lying in wait to attack.

Mr Yao added that Al Shabaab’s capabilities have been significantly depleted as a fighting force in Somalia because the key areas they used for resupply are being recovered from them.

However, Al Shabaab still remains a threat because its members mingle with residents, waiting to strike another day.

The split in Al Shabaab occurred prior to the killing of the group’s then leader Ahmed Abdi Godane by US drones in September last year. Godane had favoured participation in the national dialogue to gain a foothold in the government once elections are called.

He was supported by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the Al Shabaab ideologue who has since made peace with the government but who still remains on the US list of people wanted in connection with terror

Al Shabaab militants still maintain a strong presence in Tayeglo in central Somalia, a difficult terrain that even Amisom has been trying to capture without success. Other strongholds include the coastal region of Barawa, Ras Kamboni and the rural areas of Jubbaland.

New headache for East Africa

Sources familiar with Amisom operations say it does not have enough troops to stabilise captured territories. These are, instead, left to local militias, who are susceptible to Al Shabaab counterattacks.

Meanwhile, the fall of the Yemeni regime is now posing a security headache for East African governments as Somali refugees trickle back home.

Saudi Arabia and a host of other Middle East countries have already started airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, creating a humanitarian crisis that has seen several hundred Somali refugees return home.

Last week’s release of 300 Al Qaeda-linked inmates from a prison by militants of the terror group will also complicate matters as the Somali border is deemed accessible by sea.

Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda-linked group, launched the Garissa attack as a show of might and a cry for recognition among global terrorists groups.

Andrew Franklin, a former US Marine and a security analyst in Nairobi, said that Kenya needs to brace itself for an increase in insurgent activities along its already besieged border with Somalia because of the spillover effects of the war in Yemen.

“An increasing number of conventional weapons and trained jihadist fighters will now be able to transit through Yemen and cross into Somaliland, into northern Somalia,” Mr Franklin said. “These are the fighters Al Shabaab is craving and they will bring with them experience, knowledge and a morale boost for the militants.”

Al Shabaab is said to be divided into sections, with some pledging allegiance to the Islamic State group while another is keen on maintaining their Al Qaeda links.

Al Shabaab is now likely to step up attacks against the Kenyan government, the Somali government and those countries involved in the Amisom in order to raise their profile, which has been overshadowed recently by the Islamic State exploits in Syria and Iraq.

A fortnight ago, the group laid siege for 10 hours to a high-end Mogadishu hotel frequented by diplomats and foreigners, killing 10 people, including the Somali ambassador to Switzerland.

In an interview with the Voice of America, Yan St Pierre said that the Yemeni war will open the floodgates for weapons access in Somalia and the spillover effect will affect the relationship of groups such as Al Shabaab and their effectiveness in Somalia and Kenya and neighbouring states.

Philip Mutua, a former intelligence officer, said the terror attacks being undertaken by Al Shabab shows a change of tack, with a clear intention of having an international appeal.

“From the wars in Syria and Iraq to Boko Haram in Nigeria, the Islamic State-linked groups have been making headlines,” Mr Mutua said. “Al Shabaab doesn’t want to be written off and these daring attacks, both in Kenya and Somalia, are a show of might, an appeal for recognition.”

According to Mr Mutua, the fall of Yemen’s government and the existence of a weak Somali government will offer a perfect opportunity for Al Qaeda to revamp itself through Al Shabaab because it has already been overshadowed in Syria, Pakistan and Iraq.

“We are entering a dangerous phase, where these militants are competing for appeal,” he said. “People had written off Al Shabaab and, going by what they did in Garissa, we should re-think our strategy.”

In a research note, Texas-based Strategic Forecasting said the Garissa attack shows that the group still possesses the capability to conduct raids against soft targets inside Kenya.

“Al Shabaab’s loss of territory, along with the killing of some its key leaders, has forced it to switch from conventional warfare to guerrilla tactics,” Strategic Forecasting said.

Mr Franklin said that Al Shabaab will now be looking at how to exploit the lawlessness in Yemen to their advantage.

“The Yemen government in Sanaa created order in access to weapons, trade and movement of people,” Mr Franklin said. “With that government out, the scenario of Libya is playing out.

“Al Shabaab will want to exploit this to their advantage, and this should be a reason for worry for us.”

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which the US considers the most dangerous branch of the terror group, is the group the Al Shabaab wing that is keen on pleasing its Al Qaeda masters is willing to work with.

Additional reporting by Allan Olingo