All who have worked closely with the man who has famously been dubbed the western darling whilst appaled by his flaring temper and his dreadful ruthlessness assert that he is driven and a fast learner.

Kagame is a hawk-like man on a journey.  He always knew what he wanted: absolute power; and he was prepared to do what it took to attain it come hell or high water.

He was smart enough to surround himself with the talented assets he knew to be indispensable for what he wanted to achieve never hesitating to dispose of the same when he had no more use for them.

Kagame is the perfect example of the gangster politician not in the least bothered by the solitude at the top as long as he remains in charge.

One thing most of his opponents continue to misunderstand about the General is his understanding of power and control and how his experience in the field of military intelligence benefits him in managing not only his military but Rwanda in general.

He anticipates reactions because he knows who to use and what strings to pull. 

Unlike his would-be challengers today, he rarely leaves things to chance.

Kagame understands that power has a magnetic feel to it, he has never been one to keep a loyal entourage, he knows money will buy him the loyalty he needs at any given time.  Power is the only friend Kagame accommodates.

Over the years many in his court have bitterly come to this realization and yet many more continue to idealize him.

As expected, overzealous sycophancy is a way of life in his court, it is not a matter of choice; having established himself as the supreme authority in Rwanda, Kagame is the sole maker of men. Displease him, cross him or challenge him in any way and you are finished.

He outsmarted us all. He put himself above law and country and we let him, even helped him. 

Perhaps it is part of our psyche, our reverence of authority can be traced back to many generations to the eras of the times of the kingdoms. Being thus predisposed, Kagame did not have to do much to establish himself as supreme ruler of Rwanda.

He did not have to do much flattering or coercing, military victory in one fist, he only had to make the usual promises dictators know they will never bother delivering on; the rest of the time he threatened, blackmailed, killed and tortured for this power.

Today, his brutal leadership has produced more exiles for Rwanda than all his predecessors combined!

But what is really being done to challenge Mr Kagame’s iron-fist rule and what does this tell us about the future of democracy in Rwanda?

Granted his human right abuses are out in the open, thanks to the dedication of tireless and selfless activists.

Crimes committed under his authority have been diligently documented in numerous UN reports.

Why then have his allies not dropped him yet?

The truth of the matter is that the world as we know it is ruled by obscure elites for which democracy is a barely relevant concept as far as their economic and geopolitical interests are concerned. They will sacrifice every liberty at the altar of this “business-friendly “stability. It primes over justice and republic for these elites. Kagame is still the man of the situation for them, he knows how to market himself as such. He is still their guarantor of authority and stability at least as far as Rwanda is concerned. He is right where they need him to be.

Because of these elites, should change come to Rwanda over the coming years, we would be looking at a continuation of that “business facilitating ” stability in the embodiment of another strong man. Many will disagree with this point of view and predict an “Arab spring” style revolution but in a country where the only institution built over the period of 26 years is the military, realistically speaking, the possibility of a popular uprising leading to the democracy we the people yearn for today is unfortunately unlikely.

Mr Kagame’s opposition ought to reflect on the two main worrying issues that await Rwanda beyond the very expensive propaganda campaigns Kagame continues to build his legacy on. The nation will still be divided into the same three irreconcilable societies we have today: the elite, the subdued and the undesirable. These will need to learn to accommodate one another and live together. The other noteworthy concern will be the harsh reality of the doctored economic mirage that Rwanda will wake up to, whose consequences will be dire.

Needless to say, these serious issues will not be resolved without their share of tremendous difficulties.

Noble Marara

**Note: Illustration courtesy of the eastafrican.ke