Ten years ago Uganda’s first son, Lt. Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba persuaded his father to reconcile with his “uncle” president Paul Kagame after years of bad blood over ( among other things) the infamous Six-Day War in Kisangani. 

This time around, to the amazement of all parties in the know of the seriousness of Mzee Museveni and Kagame’s irreconcilable differences, Muhoozi is the man of the situation again.

Will Lt Gen. Muhoozi singlehandedly meet all of Rwanda’s preconditions for the truce between both countries?

The issues at hand will require a lot more than mediatic reconciliation.

So far Rwanda’s resilience had discomforted Uganda economically with a border closure stratagem that has had a detrimental mirror effect on its own economy. 

What could have influenced this U-Turn on Uganda’s part and what could we realistically expect from it?

According to a third ear: “ …we would need them ( Uganda) to take our nationals to court when they are arrested, to produce all the ones being held illegally and of course to stop supporting Rwandan dissent; that means giving up on that kimuga and all his circus…in exchange Rwanda would support Mzee’s succession project. ”

Neighborly relations between Rwanda and Uganda might be Lt Gen Muhoozi’s first real herculean task. After all, it is now an open secret that he is Uganda’s next president and as such, for Uganda’s and EAC’s sake, peace is a better and cheaper investment.

It will be interesting to see how a cease-fire will be brokered.

Military sources on the Rwandan side believe that with regards to RNC and Kayumba Nyamwasa’s and FDLR‘s activities in Uganda, “…Muhoozi does not have it in him to scheme against us …“ and that “ …it is a gamble for old-timers that see in that dissident general an element that can be controlled by [their] security services.”

The million-dollar question in the ranks of the Rwandan opposition- if this development is not a ruse- is whether Lt. Gen. Muhoozi will deliver Nyamwasa on a silver platter to his “uncle”, whether and how he will really pull the plug on Uganda’s long alleged full support of Rwanda National Congress’s activities overnight.

In the world of the powerful, rules of enmity as we know them do not apply. Whatever Kagame and Muhoozi’s rekindled bromance develops into, humble beginners venturing into the treacherous political arena would do good to remember that.