Paul Kagame third termCome 2017 Kagame is most likely to stay around. In the recent press conference Kagame said he is not interested in running for a third term when his term ends in 2017. However, the President noted that even if he isn’t interested in another term in office, he still leaves it to the Rwandan people to choose what they want for a better future of their country.  It is in this regard that Kagame is busy crisscrossing the country and has chosen a team of RPF cadres who are well known for doctoring the RPF agenda. Reliably sources from the inner circle of the RPF who requested to remain anonymous because of their security, revealed to us that a master plan of the ‘transition formula’ ahead of 2017 which among others include Tito Rutaremara, Joseph Karemera and Antoine Mugesera will come up with what the RPF cadres called “a formula to deliver a change, continuity, and stability after 2017”.  Although this has been on the lips and in the minds of many Rwandans and international political pundits, the recent developments have opened the lid of  the cooking pot  and the secrets of his ambitions and political dilemma that existed before in the minds of many political theorists in the region and beyond have been exposed.

Could Kagame achieve his ambitions without necessarily changing the constitution?

There two options that Kagame could use and still remain in power behind the scenes by single-handedly pick a successor whom he will sell to the RPF cadres and peers and in turn will canvass support for him /her throughout the country and be elected as the new president (from RPF) thus to them, the party will have delivered change at the presidential level and maintained RPF continuity at the party level.

According to this theory a new person running the presidency and Kagame remaining an influential figure in the management of RPF affairs would act as a stabilising factor.  Some RPF cadres have argued that this would require RPF to reorganise itself along lines of the likes of South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) or the Communist Party of China, where the party has powers to recall the president. However, as the constitution of the Republic of Rwanda does not recognise this style of democracy, the architecture of this political change leaving Kagame invulnerable to both national and international shocks will have to design constitutional shock absorbers by making constitutional amendments because the president would no longer be voted in through universal suffrage but selected by the winning party. Behind the curtains, many senior RPF officials prefer this approach because their leader will be able to dictate the day to day running of the party and the country by just a remote control.

Another scenario that many young recruits in the RPF are advocating for because of either of little knowledge on our history or just because are manipulated by the RPF officials and other inducements are in favor of removing the term limits, this was revealed in the February 8 meeting which was called by the ruling Party to plan ahead of 2017 coming elections, while others talked of a “Putin style”. It is in this regard that many political observers have concluded that going by the timeline of events and views of party officials, a third term for Kagame is very much likely. Indeed they have questioned the logic of this panic within the RPF elite “If the Constitution is clear on what must happen in 2017, why should Kagame and his clique be bothered? Why the debate?” An anonymous political observer asked; indeed, this is a question that bothers many in Kigali.

Therefore there is no doubt that the present crisscrossing of the country by Kagame is meant to cross the bridge before the elections in 2017 and in fact this a strategy within RPF political designers of laying the grounds for a possible lifting of term limits.  Kagame and RPF, like any other political party and African dictators would wish to stay in power for several decades use all tactics to achieve their ambitions, but there is a better way of achieving that, than changing the Constitution.  Kagame and the RPF are always heard boasting of lifting many Rwandans out of poverty and an economic boom, why then all this panic? They should instead accept competition and an open democratic space, allow freedom of press and freedom of assembly, in fact even within the party they already lack democratic credentials and that’s why many of their former comrades have either left the party or have gone underground waiting for the day when events will spark the revolution and come out on the streets in big numbers.

While Kagame has managed to outsmart all his friends and comrades, killed all his opponents, support and finance rebel movements that have not only destabilised his neighbors but have also killed innocent children, raped women and left many wandering in the wild and neighboring countries, if  Kagame and RPF push for the lifting of term limits, it is likely that the political volcano that has been inactive  for almost 2 decades on which  Kagame in fact is sitting on the top  will erupt, and make no mistake he will not only  lose any remaining trust among Rwandans and friends of Rwanda but  the political climate in Rwanda will degenerate into unpredictable political chaos and miserable destruction  because the real power is in the RPF or RDF axis which are both riddled with criminals, thieves and murderers.

Jacqueline Umurungi

Brussels