The DRC  has claimed victory against the M23 rebels who have been operating in the Eastern Congo for almost 2 decades. Whereas the rebel group has claimed end to the insurgency, it is largely the military pressure of the combined force of the UN Intervention Brigade and the DRC Security forces which has driven them out of the jungles of Eastern Congo.

The fundamental question is that many governments win battles but they don’t win wars, this is likely to be the same as the real cause of the Congo conflict is not only military but also the political grievances that have existed for many decades. Congo is engulfed in both exogenous and endogenous problems exacerbated by its greedy leaders since independence.

The government of Congo said that the remaining rebels had either surrendered or fled the country. Indeed, one million questions still remain unanswered, where did they go? What do they have in mind? Is the statement made by them that they will pursue political means made in good faith? Is it coming from them as one entity?  It is worth noting that these rebels don’t dissolve but just either evolve or camouflage into another rebel group as commanded by their backers.

The international community should address the Congo conflict from the perspective of   the source of the conflict not the side effects of the conflict. If you have headaque caused by an infection and a Doctor prescribes pain killers, they will only cure the pain but they will not cure the infection and after a while the headeque will reoccur.

It is a shame that while the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was at the South African summit, which was called to iron out the Congo issues, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame was absent and he delegated his foreign affairs minister a reminder to the audience that the infection of the Congo conflict will not be cured by the pain killers.  Kagame knows very well that his mentor the Ugandan leader was there in the summit to twist words for him as Kagame could have not only lost his temper but also it would have been difficult for him to face the reality of the inevitable defeat.

What are the remaining options for the rebels and Kagame the man believed to be the sponsor of the Congo conflict?  Will he use the same tactics that he used after the defeat of the RPF first invasion in the 1990?  Will his mentor the Ugandan leader stand shoulder to shoulder come rain or sunshine? The terrain of 1990s is different from the current terrain, the West who backed the RPF and the lobby of the Ugandan leader for RPF is not interested in the continuation of the Congo conflict not only for the suffering of the Congolese people but also their interests are different. Will then Kagame go quietly? It is hard to tell at the moment even the Congolese government is skeptical, DR Congo Information Minister Lambert Mende said “We can say that it’s finished. But you never know,” Mr Mende told the BBC’s Newsday programme. “Those who escaped can come with hit-and-run operations so we have to end everything politically so that we are sure our people can sleep quietly without any threat.”

The international community is also not leaving any stone unturned for those who have been on the whelm of leadership of the M23, the United States has called for the speedy trial of all the top military leaders of the above rebel group that has caused mayhem for the last twenty years, The US special envoy Russell Feingold told reporters in Pretoria the M23’s announcement was “a significant, positive step”. Rebels should be protected when they had disarmed, he said, but those guilty of serious crimes should not be given an amnesty. If these top commanders are not given amnesty where are they going? As the fate of these top commanders remains in balance, so are the political, economic, and military collateral effects on the Kigali government.

The international community has overwhelming evidence that the Rwandan leader has been behind all these atrocities in Congo. Indeed the same crimes the former Liberian leader Charles Taylor was convicted in The Hague and sentenced to 50 years. Will then Kagame hand in the M23 top military leaders in the same way he did to Bosco Ntaganda? The M23 despite their defeat they still pose a security threat not only to Congo but also Rwanda. It has been a force trained to kill; will Kagame allow all these killers on his own soil and give them sanctuary?

If you have been stealing with a thief and he/she visits you, you will not sleep the whole night. The same scenario is likely to happen to Kagame and his rebel group the M23. Kagame might find himself in a big dilemma, he cannot give them to The Hague as he fears that these guys might spill beans against him on what happened on the battle field. He can neither keep them in Rwanda as they might be used by another force in future to fight him. Lack of employment might be another cause of anxiety to these rebels as no one will dare to try to employ them. They will then live on Kagame hand outs, but for how long? These are people who have been used to huge sums of money from looting, illegal illicit of wealth and corruption which will not be possible in a tiny and poor country Rwanda.

It is in this regard that the international community exerts more pressure on president Kagame and blocks all the possibilities which could lead for another proxy in Congo to foot Kagame bills and his cronies, otherwise the M23 might end up in hibernation and come back after the winter season.

Jacqueline Umurungi

Brussels