FIB 1According to the UN Spokesperson a U.N. peacekeeper from Tanzania was killed and three others were wounded on Wednesday in an operation with the Congolese army to drive back M23 rebels from the city of Goma in eastern Congo. As the Tanzanian soldier misses in action will his death change the rules of the game?
A University Professor at France’s Sorbonne University Andre Guichaoua argued that the Tanzanians are “fed up” with the chronic instability in the Great Lakes region, and in particular Congo which explains the reason why the Tanzanian leader advised Kagame and other neighboring countries to talk peace to all the armed forces that fight their respective countries.
Despite official denials by the Rwandan officials Prof .Guichaoua said Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete is convinced his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame is “stoking up the conflict”. Indeed, the presence and involvement of the Rwandan forces in Congo is no longer a secret, the government has advertised and is recruiting soldiers according to the announcement by the Ministry of defence; they are looking for recruits between 18 years of age and not more than 23.
Why should Rwanda recruit soldiers when it is not at war? Why only that category at this moment in time? These children are in their youthful age ready for schooling and social development but not sending them to the jungles of Congo for unjust war. These are Rwandan children and all Rwandans should stand up against this evil and coward act of Kagame of sending our children for his own economic and political interests
Thierry Vircoulon of the International Crisis Group acknowledges that it is unlikely that Tanzania and Rwanda could go for an out war unless one of its soldiers serving in the UN could be murdered by the proxy forces of Kagame(M23). He argued that the war of words could continue for some time a “rather surprising war of words” but doesn’t see the situation spiralling out of control into armed conflict “unless a Tanzanian soldier gets killed tomorrow”.
For those who know Kagame and his attitude believe that he will continue to hunt President Kikwete indirectly or directly because he cannot rest in peace when President Kikwete is still on the steering wheel of Tanzania. According to Kagame, he will always wait for the right time at a right place and hit his enemy. While Kagame officiating a military ceremony in Musanze(Ruhengeri) on June 30, he repeated that he would not respond to those who advised him to negotiate with the FDLR, but also warned that in the right place and when the right time came “I will hit them” for “there are lines one cannot cross”.
Is this the right time the Rwandan leader was talking about? Is he going to use his proxy forces in Congo or he is looking for another opportunity and extends the proxy war on the Tanzanian soil in the same way Idi Amin invaded Tanzania in 1978? Will Tanzania have the stamina and appetite to reciprocate?
On the part of President Kikwete, he warned that whoever will attack his country will be paid in the same currency. Kikwete, without naming Kagame or Rwanda, warned that anyone who attacked his country would face “dire consequences”. He reminded the Tanzania public the position Tanzania and how his country deals with aggressors by recalling the fate of Ugandan former dictator Idi Amin Dada, who was overthrown when Tanzania’s leader Julius Nyerere launched a counteroffensive after a Ugandan army incursion into Tanzania. He told them that whereas the TPDF had driven the Idi Amin forces from the Tanzanian soil as far as Mbarara and Masaka respectively, it was imperative to push what he called the arrogance of Idi Amin from power in April 1979.
While since then, both leaders have eased the tension of war of words and in particular President Kikwete saying that he never intended to threaten Kagame, saying he wanted “good relations with Rwanda”. He admitted the two countries were “going through a difficult patch”. Indeed, it is evident that the cold blood and cold war between the two leaders still remain and there is still potential for proxy warfare to escalate in the Congo.
President Kagame is known for being a man who harbors revengeful attitude and will do whatever it takes to look even what he is not, it is believed that the loss of soldiers in the war will never deter Kagame to retreat, and his arrogance saying “I don’t care or I don’t give a damn” has been the main reason of falling apart with many of his comrades especially when fighting unjust wars like that one in Congo. As I have mentioned above, whether according to Kagame , this is the right time, it remains to be seen, but he too should be aware that he might end up like Idi Amin since he has more enemies than Idi Amin including some senior army officers who in fact were very instrumental in bringing him to power. This is indeed, the same mistake Idi Amin did in 1978; learn from History Mr. President or History will judge you harshly.
Jacqueline Umurungi
Brussels.