Tomorrow, East African heads of state will meet in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, to discuss Burundi’s current political unrest that has killed at least 19 people and displaced more than 50,000 others, but can they find a lasting solution and help restore calm?

Whoever is there, knows that Burundi is no different to Uganda or Rwanda, except Tanzania and Kenya. On the other hand, the determinant factors are inside Burundi where their counterpart, incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza, seems determined to participate in next month’s presidential election despite criticism that it’s against the Arusha accord that ended the country’s civil war.

President Jakaya Kikwete is the current chair of the East African Community (EAC) and it is his responsibility to rally his counterparts to urgently find a solution to prevent the Burundian power scuffle from getting nastier.

It is clear that the Burundian leader would attend the meeting, however, insiders in the Burundi CNDD/FDD are speculating that   Nkurunziza might be gunned down while returning as was the case of his predecessor and the former Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana in 1994.

Analysts believe this is a rather tricky situation for the EAC leaders and one that will test their resolve to safeguard the region’s stability now and in the future, by resolving conflicts such as the one ongoing in Burundi. Both Kagame and Museveni have no moral authority to tell President Nkurunziza to step down given that Museveni has ruled Uganda since 1986 and Kagame since 1994 and is now in final stages of changing the Rwandan Constitution so that he can stand again come 2017 when his constitutional mandate expires.

On one hand, EAC leaders are under pressure from some  Burundians  who have been partly planted and funded by Kagame. The international community is determined to persuade their Nkurunziza to abandon his third term bid and respect the 2000 Arusha accord which allows Burundian presidents to serve only two terms in office.

But on the other hand, Burundian institutions, frail as they might be, seem to be encouraging the President’s scheme and any external intervention from the EAC risks being seen as interference in Burundi’s sovereignty to decide on an internal matter.

After the country’s ruling party endorsed Nkurunziza for a third term in office, the constitutional court followed it up with a decision last week in which the judges decided that Nkurunziza’s decision was within the realm of the constitution and, at the weekend, Burundi’s electoral commission cleared his candidacy.

Although, the legality of the ruling by the constitutional court remains highly questionable following the fleeing of the court’s vice president, who later disclosed details of how the judges were arm-twisted, influencing their decision, Both Kagame and Museveni will have difficulty in questioning the integrity of the courts’ decision given that Museveni has been winning electro court cases by the majority not unanimity.

Kagame on the other hand has used his courts to incarcerate whoever questions his political ideology. People like Deo Mushayid, Ingabire Victoire , Ntakirutinka Charles just to mention a few not because of the crime they have committed but because of their conscience.

Accordingly, these developments have provoked anger in Burundi where civil society and opposition politicians insist the country’s incumbent has no right to a third term; they have since been involved in running battles with police leaving 19 people killed.

Over 50, 000 civilians have fled Burundi since the beginning of April, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and over 25,000 of those are in Rwanda where they have been granted refugee status. Others are in Tanzania and DR Congo.

The international community has urged the region to engage actors in Burundi’s political theatre to resolve their differences and restore calm to avoid a deeper refugee crisis.

What can EAC do?

In their meeting tomorrow, the leaders are likely to consider findings by three EAC ministers of foreign affairs that President Kikwete dispatched to Burundi last week on a fact-finding mission.

Their instructions were to go to Bujumbura, meet the various stakeholders, assess the situation and file a report with possible solutions that the leaders can take to resolve the crisis. The Rwanda Minister for Foreign Affairs, Louise Mushikiwabo, who was part of the fact finding mission, will be in Dar es Salaam when the leaders meet, according to a source at the sources in Kigali. But some analysts fear that the leaders might be divided on how to intervene in Burundi; to safeguard their own political interests, some might prefer to watch a little longer and see how the things play out after the election but others might want Nkurunziza to not run at all.

Therefore, for a long lasting solution, the leaders, must, first, harmonise their stand and act in unionism if the people of Burundi are to avoid the consequences of another civil war. However, given the bad blood between Kikwete and Kagame who was once warned that will hit him at Kagame’s time of choosing will not be in the same bed with those who want to remove his remaining ally.

“Whatever they decide, the priority should be to prevent another civil war in Burundi that would have dire consequences on the entire region,” said one commentator on the region’s geopolitics.